Two Weeks to Go: What Fernando Santos Needs to Do

September 24th, 2011 | by: nick | Comments Off

The final two rounds of the UEFA Euro 2012 qualifiers are two weeks away and Greece have a very good chance to take first place in Group F. At this point Greece are in second place, one point behind Croatia with 18 points. Israel, Georgia, Latvia, and Malta are eliminated and are no longer in contention. However this does not mean that the job is done. Greece’s match against Croatia in Athens on October 7 and to Georgia in Tbilisi four days later will be crucial in deciding which team gets first place. Assuming Croatia win their last fixture to Latvia in Zagreb, a loss for Greece in either match will send them to the playoffs. Only victories in both matches will ensure first place and direct qualification. In order to achieve that goal Santos has to make some changes in order to avoid falling short. His team played a decent game against Israel but fell apart against Latvia.

Squad
Fernando Santos has not yet announced his squad for the two qualifiers but three things are clear. Sotiris Ninis has been ruled out due to a knee injury suffered against Israel while Kyriakos Papadopoulos and Giannis Maniatis are suspended against Croatia after accumulating two yellow cards but should be due to return against Georgia. This however should not be a major worry as Santos has plenty of depth and a vast pool of potential players to fill any gaps. Papadopoulos may be the only player Santos will have difficulty replacing since he has been in sensational form in the past year. However, he will benefit from having Vassilis Torossidis back from suspension. Which ever squad Santos chooses, he should utilize the depth at his disposal.

Tactics and formation
Aside from the squad, Santos’ larger problem is getting consistency out of the formation he uses. He used a 4-4-2 in the last to matches which worked pretty well against Israel but fell apart against Latvia. Prior to the September matches he used a 4-3-3 from the Rehhagel era and a seemingly good 4-2-3-1. Santos would probably be better off with a 4-4-2 as his primary formation and a modified 4-2-3-1 as a possible alternative.

Possible Formations

The 4-4-2 clearly works best for Greece with the current lineup and depth that Santos currently has at his disposal. However with a critical encounter against Croatia just two weeks away he has make a few changes to tweak the line up that defeated Israel earlier this month. The formation should revolve around the proven midfield partnership of Kostas Katsouranis and Giorgos Karagounis which allows both of them to use their attacking and defensive capabilities. Since Karagounis is no longer the same attacking midfielder he was during the magical summer of 2004, the central position allows him to use is playmaking vision to control possession in the midfield.

The centerback issue is probably the most critical with Avraam Papadopoulos being a readily available deputy, but his performances have been mediocre at best. A possible alternative would be Kostas Manolas of AEK who has had some very impressive performances for the past two seasons. Having Manolas on board would provide further cover since Kyriakos Papadopoulos will be unavailable. Ninis will also be unavailable which begs the question of who to line up in the right midfield position. Ioannis Fetfazidis is a logical choice since he plays in that role regularly for Olympiakos.

Santos also has a habit of using Georgas Samaras as a left winger which is clearly a misuse of his talent. He would be much more effective playing as a center forward alone or along side Dimitris Salpingidis or Nikos Liberopoulos. Instead, Giorgios Fotakis could be used on the left as an inverted winger allowing him to use his right foot to provide in swinging crosses. This would also allow Samaras to use his height advantage to dominate the aerial space up front.

An alternative formation would be a Spanish style 4-2-3-1 which was used in the past but with the wrong players. However, this formation can be very effective if staffed properly. Like the 4-4-2, Karagounis and Katsouranis would anchor the midfield behind Fotakis or Fetfatzidis. The flanks would be occupied by Salpingidis on the right and Fetfatzidis or Fotakis on the left providing width and support for Samaras. This formation would allow Greece to dominate as much space as possible to prevent a Croatian or Georgian counter attack.